本論文主要研究是太陽能光電系統(Photovoltaic System, PV)之配電變電所容量擴充規劃。首先建立太陽能光電系統的數學模型，根據日照強度及溫度，推估出PV系統所能輸出電力。利用各變電所之主變壓器強迫故障率(Forced Outage Rate, FOR)推估各變電所之缺電機率(Loss of Load Expectation, LOLE)。根據負載成長率及供電網路的缺電機率，以PV系統作為供應電網電力之來源，推導滿足缺電機率之逐年PV系統之變電所容量擴充規劃。另外為了增加系統可靠度，配合配電系統互聯容量限制，考慮相鄰供電區之容量轉供，重新擬定PV系統之變電所容量擴充規劃。本論文以台電高雄區處轄區配電系統為模擬系統，經由本論文之進行，滿足系統尖峰負載之可靠度，可推導出不同PV系統滲透率之變電所容量之擴充規劃模式，有效延緩配電設備擴建。
This paper investigates the capacity expansion of distribution substation of each service area considering photovoltaic (PV) system penetration to achieve the cost effectiveness of substation investment to comply with the service reliability. The PV power generation is simulated according to the hourly solar irradiation and temperature provided by the weather bureau. By using the forced outage rate (FOR) of main transformers in the substations, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of each service area is solved. According to the annual growth of peak load demand for each service area, a methodology for capacity expansion planning of PV system in distribution system has been planned by considering loss of load expectation when PV system was used the source of electric power. To further enhance the distribution system reliability, the capacity transfer capability of main transformers with constraint of tie line flow capacity between different areas is also considered. The Kaohsiung district of Taipower is selected for computer simulation. It is found that the expansion planning of main transformers by the proposed methodology can provide better cost effectiveness of transformer investment to satisfy the service reliability as well as the system peak loading.